Sam Warburton cannot see past a French club to win this season’s Investec Champions Cup, the newly rebranded elite competition that, like many of us, he still refers to as “Europe” even though this is the second year of the inclusion of South African teams.
Warburton, as one of the liveliest minds in the punditry world, can make a case for Saracens carrying the English flag as far as the semi-finals, but he says Leinster from Ireland won’t make it. And the ultimate winners, in the final in London next May? “I’m going to go for Toulouse,” the former Cardiff, Wales and Lions captain tells i.
“Even though they are not completely firing, by their standards – and they’ve played nine, won six, in the Top 14 so far – I think they’ll grow into the season and their squad depth is just freaky.
“French rugby is just dominating at the minute, and I am also going to back Toulon [to go well]. Their squad is very different to when you look at the Toulon of 2015, 2016. They are five from five in the league recently, and if you compare them to, say, Toulouse who have lost three away games, Toulon have gone away and beaten teams, which is so key in Europe.
Warburton’s top four to watch
- Toulouse
- Toulon
- Saracens
- La Rochelle
“Toulon have got Gabin Villiere on the wing, he had a great Six Nations in 2022, a top turnover specialist and you could see why Shaun Edwards as France’s defence coach wanted him in. The Champions Cup would be a big stage to prove his worth again.
“And England’s Dave Ribbans is a really shrewd acquisition; I have always liked him. He has brought some athleticism into their second row. Fly-half Dan Biggar is injured but they have been bold and ambitious with their signings. It would be a nice resurgence from Toulon.
“Saracens, if they can guarantee having their big hitters all the way through, they are going to challenge. Squad depth is such a big thing. I think La Rochelle will be in the top four, and they are with Racing and Leinster in my six favourites, but on Leinster, it might take a year to get back where they used to be.
“The one criticism Leinster have had is they come unstuck physically when they play these big boys in Europe. When those four teams I’ve picked get it right, it will be hard for the others to live with them.”
The Champions Cup kicks off with four pools of six teams in December and January, leading to a Round of 16 in April, and Warburton says the initial stage “whittles out the dead wood”.
Champions Cup 2023-24 pools
Pool 1
- Bristol
- Bulls
- Connacht
- Lyon
- Saracens
- Bordeaux
Pool 2
- Bath
- Cardiff
- Harlequins
- Racing 92
- Toulouse
- Ulster
Pool 3
- Bayonne
- Exeter
- Glasgow
- Munster
- Northampton
- Toulon
Pool 4
- La Rochelle
- Leicester
- Leinster
- Sale
- Stade Francais
- Stormers
Pool by pool he picks out Saracens in pool one, and Toulouse, Bath and Racing in pool two. “I think Bath will have a good run this year, the way they’re playing, they’ve added layers to their game.” In pool three he is expecting that “surge” from three-time winners Toulon, while La Rochelle and Leinster will “for sure” be topping pool four. “Leinster are always amazing in the pools.”
‘I envy Owen Farrell – it’s a really admirable decision’
Warburton has followed Owen Farrell’s much talked about decision to step away from international rugby to prioritise his and his family’s mental health. Warburton famously skippered Wales and the Lions at a young age, and on the 2013 and 2017 Lions tours he was a team-mate of Farrell’s, having also faced the England captain in many a Six Nations Test. Pictures from Pretoria this week show the fly-half back with his club Saracens, training in the southern summer sun and ready to take on the Bulls on Saturday.
“I don’t know all the details, so we must wait and see how it goes,” Warburton says. “But I think it’s a really admirable decision from Owen Farrell, and one I look upon it with a little bit of envy. I was in a bit of a bad place when I finished [in 2018]. I wouldn’t ever say I’d struggled for mental health, but you get to a point where it’s ‘oh my goodness’, you just want to enjoy playing rugby again. People are thinking international rugby is so enjoyable, and yes it’s an honour, but it is all consuming for your life, particularly when you are an international captain – and England would be more so than myself at Wales.
“I don’t have any regrets, but maybe it would have been nice to play for Cardiff for a couple more years, without international rugby – and I would have been able to do that, but I was worried I wouldn’t physically be able to get back to the levels I needed to play at top level, international and Lions level. I didn’t want to give it a chance of being that player who ended up a second or third choice. I remember saying that to [Warren] Gatland: if I can’t be first choice I don’t want to play and I don’t know if I’m ever going to get back to that level.
“But maybe I didn’t give it enough time, and maybe Cardiff Rugby would have seen a huge amount of value in me being around for 30 games of the year as opposed to going away for two campaigns.
“Farrell, he is older than I was, probably three years older with more maturity to say he just wants to play for Saracens. They’ve stuck with him through thick and thin, they’ve obviously paid him handsomely, and he wants to repay that loyalty and that faith as well. He doesn’t need to prove anything to anyone now, at international level – he’s done it all, multiple Lions tours, won Six Nations campaigns. I think it’s a really mature decision.”
Warburton is also wondering whether this may be a chance for Farrell to delve into a new facet of rugby. “I’d love to see Farrell coach, because 10s just see the game differently, and never mind his leadership skills anyway. He’ll have a bit more time, to have more of a hand in the coaching and be in some more coaches’ meetings. It could be a way of nurturing coaching skills for the next couple of years before he maybe hangs up his boots, and then has more of a seamless transition into Saracens’ coaching set-up. I’m completely guessing here, but that’s what I would like to see from a rugby perspective, because he’s got so much to add.”
The Welshman who can ’cause havoc’
Warburton’s Wales have just one team – Cardiff – in the Champions Cup, and it might be none next year when there is a change to the rules on qualifying through the URC. Can Wales’s capital club make a big impact this season? “The short answer is ‘no’,” says Warburton. “And I don’t think the Welsh teams would even mind me saying that. I’m on the board with Cardiff, and Cardiff won’t even mind me saying no. With a £5m playing budget, playing French teams with double your budget? No.
“But if I’m looking to a player, I’ve been watching Cardiff this season like a hawk, and Mason Grady is something else. He has been playing on the wing and this boy has been unbelievable. They are playing Toulouse this week, and then they have got Bath. Those teams have got to swat up on this guy because if you leave him one on one, or to have free rein, he’s going to cause havoc.
“It is exciting some players will be exposed to this level, but Cardiff know realistically as well, if they can just be competitive, that’s a win for them in the Champions Cup this year. They can blood some younger players, it’s all about the future.
“The next few years, it’s all about creating a stable squad, holding on to young players, and as finances get better, and there is an investment takeover happening at the moment at Cardiff, then you’ll be able to build your squad. It will be good exposure for Cardiff, and if they can stay in the fight in all their games that is the best we can hope for.”
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