The Government has launched a last-ditch attempt to contain a potential rebellion among its MPs on Tuesday amid fears the Rwanda Bill could be voted down.
Numerous factions on the right of the Tory party have been vocal about their concerns regarding the new legislation, with many frustrated at delays to efforts to cut illegal migration.
Rishi Sunak and his whips now have just hours to persuade wavering MPs against rebelling or abstaining on the bill, which will be voted on later this evening.
Why are Tory MPs planning to vote against the Rwanda bill?
On Monday, several Tory factions dubbed the “five families” met in Parliament to hear the findings of the so-called “star chamber” of lawyers, led by veteran Tory MP Sir Bill Cash.
The lawyers, acting on behalf of the European Research Group (ERG), concluded that the legislation did not go far enough to address the risk of European judges blocking the plan.
Mark Francois, ERG chairman called on the Government to “pull” the Rwanda Bill because it has “so many holes in it”, suggesting ministers “come up with a revised version that works better than this one”.
His comments came after lawyers acting for the ERG did not go far enough to address the risk of European judges blocking the plan.
The New Conservatives, a right-wing group of mainly “Red Wall” Tory MPs, also said on Monday that around 40 of its members had agreed that the legislation “needs major surgery or replacement”.
Mr Sunak was offered a lifeline, however, after the centrist One Nation caucus of Tory MPs announced it had advised its members to support the Bill.
In a bid to stave off a rebellion, the Government has published its own legal advice which states that the proposed Rwanda legislation allows an “exceptionally narrow route” for migrants to bring legal challenges against their deportation.
How many votes does Rishi Sunak need?
The Conservative Party currently has a working majority of 56 – significantly lower than the 87-seat majority it had after the 2019 general election.
There are 638 voting MPs in Parliament – excluding the Speaker, his deputies and members of Sinn Féin who do note vote – which means that the Government needs 320 votes for a Bill to pass.
Mr Sunak has 347 voting MPs in his party, and there are 281 voting MPs across all other parties, which means only 29 Tory MPs would have to rebel in order to defeat any piece of legislation, provided all opposition and independent MPs vote against the Government and none abstain.
This threshold could be lower, however, as several of the current independent MPs are former Tories, and are therefore more likely to vote with the Government.
These totals are also impacted by how many MPs abstain on the vote, which can happen for a variety of reasons ranging from opposition to the bill to illness or being away from the Commons on official business.
What happens if the Rwanda Bill is voted down?
There are two scenarios for how the new Rwanda legislation could be vote down: Tory MPs abstain and its blocked by the opposition, or Tory MPs rebel and vote down the plan.
It would take 56 Tory MPs – the Government’s working majority – abstaining or 29 Tory MPs rebelling to bring down the bill, provided all opposition parties vote against.
This would by the first time a bill has been voted down at its second reading since 1986, and would have serious repercussions for Mr Sunak’s leadership.
He could begin to lose the confidence of his party and face a challenge to his leadership, or be forced to abandon his flagship plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.
However, with the Conservatives already having gone through five leaders since 2015, its possible that Downing Street could instead push for a snap general election to put the issue to the public.
The Prime Minister doesn’t need permission from MPs to call an election, and simply has to ask King Charles III for permission to dissolve Parliament.
Could the Rwanda bill be amended later?
It is much more likely that Tory MPs who have concerns about the Rwanda bill will support it with the view of pushing for amendments at a later stage.
This would give Mr Sunak more breathing space to persuade wavering MPs of the benefits of his approach, but also sets him up for more internal battles later as the Bill progresses through Parliament.
And the battle won’t end with his MPs. It’s also likely that, if it passes the Commons, the Bill could be heavily amended by the House of Lords or even voted down.
The most likely scenario is that peers heavily amend the bill, creating a ping pong between the Commons and the Lords as they grapple over changes and potentially pushing back the date that the first deportation flights to Rwanda could take off.