You would have been forgiven for thinking the Conservative Party was not even standing a candidate in this week’s by-election across the rural constituency of Somerton and Frome.
While hundreds of Liberal Democrat placards and posters could be seen loud and proud right across this Somerset seat, not a single Tory board was up on Wednesday morning.
Then, as if by magic, by mid-afternoon the face of Conservative hopeful Faye Purbrick was everywhere. Dozens upon dozens of her campaign posters had suddenly appeared, especially by the side of the roads leading into Frome, where 25 per cent of the electorate lives.
“They’ve really gone for it now,” a Lib Dem campaign source said. “They must think they’re in with a chance.”
In with a chance the Conservatives do appear to be. Why else the surge of poster pitching on the eve of polls opening?
Garry Keenan and Jade Pinnell are voting tactically, rejecting their usual Labour vote to back the Lib Dems (Photo: David Parsley)
Going into this four-week campaign the wise money was on a fourth Lib Dem by-election victory in a little over two years. Now there appears to be a renewed confidence in the Tory campaign and increasing nerves in Lib Dem candidate Sarah Dyke’s camp.
The Lib Dems often say it’s “too close to call” going into the final days of a by-election campaign, and then go on to comprehensively overturn a huge Tory majority. This time, however, they might be telling the truth about their internal polling.
Their nerves may also explain why Ms Dyke and her yellow army of volunteers were out delivering the last 20,000 leaflets to voters last night. The two front runners both believe victory is still possible.
As for that Lib Dem campaign literature, some people in Frome believe they’ve had 20,000 dumped through just their letterboxes.
Tabitha Morgan and Claire Humphries, both 49, are doing a spot of shopping on market day in Frome. Both say they are so fed-up with having to put Lib Dem flyers into the recycling that they have both been put off voting at all.
“I got this sort of fake handwritten letter from the Lib Dems the other day,” says Tabitha. “It was on blue paper and explained how I should vote Lib Dem if I want the Tories out. It then went on to explain tactical voting in such a condescending way. It was patronising.
“And when they knock on your door they explain how tactical voting works rather than trying to convince you why their candidate is the best one.
“I do vote Green sometimes, but I just don’t think I’ll bother this time.”
However, the tactical voting message that the Lib Dems are pushing hard has not put everyone off.
Jade Pinnell, 36, is with her partner Garry Keenan, 34. They’re taking their 10-day old boy for a stroll around this rather up-market, yet somewhat bohemian, town.
“We would vote Labour if we thought they could win here, but they can’t,” says Jade. “So we’re probably going to vote tactically for the Lib Dems.”
“Same here,” says Garry. “But they have been canvassing really heavily and I have to admit that’s has almost put me off them.”
Lib Dem victory would be Absolutely Fabulous says Lynne Franks
Lynne Franks lives in Wincanton and is backing the Lib Dems in the Somerton and Frome by-election (Photo: David Parsley)
The woman that inspired 90s sitcom Absolutely Fabulous has put her Labour inclinations to one side to back Lib Dem candidate Sarah Dyke in Thursday’s by-election in Somerton and Frome.
Lynne, who has long since sold her famous PR business and now runs her Seed women’s empowerment network from picturesque Wincanton, even suggested she would “leave Somerset if Sarah doesn’t win”.
“I’m delighted that we’re finally having a by-election,” she says. “Sarah Dyke is an excellent candidate. She’s grew up here, she’s a farmer’s daughter and she’s been working really hard for people here for years.
“I would vote Labour, but there’s no point here, so the Lib Dems are right to be encouraging people who don’t want another Conservative MP to back Sarah. She has to be our next MP.”
Lynne says she’s voting for the candidate rather than the party.
“I look at the candidate really, not the party, and Sarah is clearly the best candidate”.
By that reasoning perhaps she would vote Tory if the Conservatives offered the best candidate.
“Hmmm, that would be a no,” she says. “I’d never back the Tories.”
Earlier in the day the Government announced a new £4bn electric car battery Gigafactory near Bridgwater, bringing with it 4,000 jobs to Somerset. While it’s not in this constituency those who knew of the news – and many did not – questioned the timing of the announcement.
“I work in the electric vehicle market,” says Alex Foster, 29. “So, it’s got to be good news hasn’t it? While the timing of the announcement is convenient around the by-election, anything that progresses the development of EVs has to be good news.”
Keith and Jeanette Shattock, both 86, were lifelong Tory voters, but not anymore.
“We’ve been around a long time and seen lots of governments come and go,” says Kieth. “This country has deteriorated so much that we need a change.
“The Tories talk tough on immigration but it’s not getting better. If you watch any television you’d never think the indigenous population are in the majority any longer.
“We’ve been cast aside and we can’t cope with all the immigration. I’ve got to wait 12 weeks for an NHS eye appointment because the system is creaking.”
Keith and Jeanette are moving their support from the Conservatives to Reform UK, so it’s not just the Lib Dems that are benefitting from switch voters in the West Country.
Jeanette and Keith Shattock have switched their allegiance from the Tories to Reform UK (Photo: David Parsley)
At the other end of the constituency in Somerton the first impression is that if anywhere is going to continue to vote Tory then this postcard picture of an English town is.
Once, so the locals will tell you, the capital of the ancient Kingdom of Wessex, union flags adorn most shops and there plenty of ladies who lunch and men in salmon-pink trousers ambling around.
However, there’s a whiff of rebellion in the air.
“I’ve already voted,” says Robert Rowley, 78. “I posted mine. I’ve always voted Tory, but there’s been too many changes and what we were told would happen with Brexit hasn’t happened. None of it. It has to be time for a change, so I voted Lib Dem.”
Anna Garrick, 64, is another lifelong Tory and she is unhappy at the state of the party.
“I’m not voting,” she says. “I voted for Boris [Johnson]. I wanted Boris as our Prime Minister. I didn’t want Rishi and I don’t think he’s really doing a good job.
“And I won’t go for the Lib Dems. So, I’m not going to vote.”
Last summer, in the Tiverton and Honiton by-election, the Lib Dems were providing a near constant flow of figures from their own polling. It showed the party was closing the gap on the Tories massive 26,000 majority day by day. In the end they won a 6,000 majority of their own.
In Somerton and Frome, where the Lib Dems have to overcome a Tory majority of 19.213, the polling numbers have been less forthcoming. While that does not mean the Lib Dems think their run of victories is coming to an end, it does indicate some uncertainty among their ranks.
